Factors predicting mortality in hospitalised HIV-negative children with lower-chest-wall indrawing pneumonia and implications for management.

INTRODUCTION: In 2012, the World Health Organization revised treatment guidelines for childhood pneumonia with lower chest wall indrawing (LCWI) but no 'danger signs', to recommend home-based treatment. We analysed data from children hospitalized with LCWI pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study to identify sub-groups with high odds of mortality, who might continue to benefit from hospital management but may not be admitted by staff implementing the 2012 guidelines. We compare the proportion of deaths identified using the criteria in the 2012 guidelines, and the proportion of deaths identified using an alternative set of criteria from our model. METHODS: PERCH enrolled a cohort of 2189 HIV-negative children aged 2-59 months who were admitted to hospital with LCWI pneumonia (without obvious cyanosis, inability to feed, vomiting, convulsions, lethargy or head nodding) between 2011-2014 in Kenya, Zambia, South Africa, Mali, The Gambia, Bangladesh, and Thailand. We analysed risk factors for mortality among these cases using predictive logistic regression. Malnutrition was defined as mid-upper-arm circumference <125mm or weight-for-age z-score <-2. RESULTS: Among 2189 cases, 76 (3·6%) died. Mortality was associated with oxygen saturation <92% (aOR 3·33, 1·99-5·99), HIV negative but exposed status (4·59, 1·81-11·7), moderate or severe malnutrition (6·85, 3·22-14·6) and younger age (infants compared to children 12-59 months old, OR 2·03, 95%CI 1·05-3·93). At least one of three risk factors: hypoxaemia, HIV exposure, or malnutrition identified 807 children in this population, 40% of LCWI pneumonia cases and identified 86% of the children who died in hospital (65/76). Risk factors identified using the 2012 WHO treatment guidelines identified 66% of the children who died in hospital (n = 50/76). CONCLUSIONS: Although it focuses on treatment failure in hospital, this study supports the proposal for better risk stratification of children with LCWI pneumonia. Those who have hypoxaemia, any malnutrition or those who were born to HIV positive mothers, experience poorer outcomes than other children with LCWI pneumonia. Consistent identification of these risk factors should be prioritised and children with at least one of these risk factors should not be managed in the community.

Phenotypic and molecular characterization of beta-lactam resistant Multidrug-resistant Enterobacterales isolated from patients attending six hospitals in Northern Nigeria.

Infections caused by multi-drug resistant Enterobacterales (MDR-E) are difficult to treat and cause significant mortality, especially in developing countries. This study characterized the phenotypic and genotypic profiles of 49 randomly selected beta-lactam resistant MDR-E previously isolated from patients being managed in hospitals in Nigeria using whole genome sequencing. The study isolates exhibited 85.5% resistance to 3rd generation cephalosporins and 65.3% resistance to carbapenems. The blaTEM-1B (29, 59.2%), blaCTX-M-15 (38, 77.6%), and blaNDM-1 (17, 51.5%) were the most common penicillinase, ESBL, and carbapenem resistant genes across isolates, respectively. Seventeen (45%) of blaCTX-M-15 was carried on the insertion sequence ISEc9 while blaNDM-1 (11, 64.7%) were associated with ISEc33. None of the 21 plasmids detected were associated with ß-lactamase genes. Higher resistance rates were found in E. coli ST-88 (n = 2) and the high-risk ST-692 (n = 2). For Klebsiella species, the high-risk clones ST-476 (n = 8) and ST-147 (n = 3) predominated and had higher phenotypic resistance rates and higher number of AMR genes. The mechanisms and pattern of antibiotic resistance differ from patterns previously described with isolates harbouring a wide range of AMRGs. The detection of several chromosomally mediated carbapenemases in our study also represents a significant finding that warrants further investigation to better understand its' implications for clinical practice and public health. The selected MDR-Es were found to be pan-susceptible to tigecycline and had very low resistance to fosfomycin, suggesting a potential for these as empiric treatments. A surveillance approach incorporating both conventional laboratory techniques and modern molecular techniques is essential for the comprehensive characterization of the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance in Enterobacterales infections within Nigeria.

Antimicrobial resistance and virulence genes of invasive Salmonella enterica from children with bacteremia in north-central Nigeria.

Objectives: Bacteremia due to invasive Salmonella enterica has been reported earlier in children in Nigeria. This study aimed to detect the virulence and antibiotic resistance genes of invasive Salmonella enterica from children with bacteremia in north-central Nigeria. Method: From June 2015 to June 2018, 4163 blood cultures yielded 83 Salmonella isolates. This is a secondary cross-sectional analysis of the Salmonella isolates. The Salmonella enterica were isolated and identified using standard bacteriology protocol. Biochemical identifications of the Salmonella enterica were made by Phoenix MD 50 identification system. Further identification and confirmation were done with polyvalent antisera O and invA gene. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was done following clinical and laboratory standard institute guidelines. Resistant genes and virulence genes were determined using a real-time polymerase chain reaction. Result: Salmonella typhi 51 (61.4%) was the most prevalent serovar, followed by Salmonella species 13 (15.7%), choleraesuis 8 (9.6%), enteritidis 6 (7.2%), and typhimurium 5 (6.1%). Fifty-one (61.4%) of 83 Salmonella enterica were typhoidal, while 32 (38.6%) were not. Sixty-five (78.3%) of the 83 Salmonella enterica isolates were resistant to ampicillin and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, followed by chloramphenicol 39 (46.7%), tetracycline 41 (41.4%), piperacillin 33 (33.9%), amoxicillin-clavulanate, and streptomycin 21 (25.3%), while cephalothin was 19 (22.9%). Thirty-nine (46.9%) of the 83 Salmonella enterica isolates were multi-drug resistant, and none were extensive drug resistant or pan-drug resistant. A blaTEM 42 (50.6%), floR 32 (38.6%), qnrA 24 (28.9%), tetB 20 (20.1%), tetA 10 (10.0%), and tetG 5 (6.0%) were the antibiotic resistance genes detected. There were perfect agreement between phenotypic and genotypic detection of antimicrobial resistance in tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, and chloramphenicol, while beta-lactam showed κ = 0.60 agreement. All of the Salmonella enterica isolates had the virulence genes invA, sopB, mgtC, and sip4D, while 33 (39.8%), 45 (51.8%), and 2 (2.4%) had ssaQ, spvC, and ljsGI-1, respectively. Conclusion: Our findings showed multi-drug resistant Salmonella enterica in children with bacteremia in northern Nigeria. In addition, significant virulence and antimicrobial resistance genes were found in invasive Salmonella enterica in northern Nigeria. Thus, our study emphasizes the need to monitor antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella enterica from invasive sources in Nigeria and supports antibiotic prudence.

Tackling antimicrobial resistance across sub-Saharan Africa: current challenges and implications for the future.

INTRODUCTION: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a concern as this increases morbidity, mortality, and costs, with sub-Saharan Africa having the highest rates globally. Concerns with rising AMR have resulted in international, Pan-African, and country activities including the development of national action plans (NAPs). However, there is variable implementation across Africa with key challenges persisting. AREAS COVERED: Consequently, there is an urgent need to document current NAP activities and challenges across sub-Saharan Africa to provide future guidance. This builds on a narrative review of the literature. EXPERT OPINION: All surveyed sub-Saharan African countries have developed their NAPs; however, there is variable implementation. Countries including Botswana and Namibia are yet to officially launch their NAPs with Eswatini only recently launching its NAP. Cameroon is further ahead with its NAP than these countries; though there are concerns with implementation. South Africa appears to have made the greatest strides with implementing its NAP including regular monitoring of activities and instigation of antimicrobial stewardship programs. Key challenges remain across Africa. These include available personnel, expertise, capacity, and resources to undertake agreed NAP activities including active surveillance, lack of focal points to drive NAPs, and competing demands and priorities including among donors. These challenges are being addressed, with further co-ordinated efforts needed to reduce AMR.

Digitally recorded and remotely classified lung auscultation compared with conventional stethoscope classifications among children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of pneumonia remains challenging. Digitally recorded and remote human classified lung sounds may offer benefits beyond conventional auscultation, but it is unclear whether classifications differ between the two approaches. We evaluated concordance between digital and conventional auscultation. METHODS: We collected digitally recorded lung sounds, conventional auscultation classifications and clinical measures and samples from children with pneumonia (cases) in low-income and middle-income countries. Physicians remotely classified recordings as crackles, wheeze or uninterpretable. Conventional and digital auscultation concordance was evaluated among 383 pneumonia cases with concurrently (within 2 hours) collected conventional and digital auscultation classifications using prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK). Using an expanded set of 737 cases that also incorporated the non-concurrently collected assessments, we evaluated whether associations between auscultation classifications and clinical or aetiological findings differed between conventional or digital auscultation using χ2 tests and logistic regression adjusted for age, sex and site. RESULTS: Conventional and digital auscultation concordance was moderate for classifying crackles and/or wheeze versus neither crackles nor wheeze (PABAK=0.50), and fair for crackles-only versus not crackles-only (PABAK=0.30) and any wheeze versus no wheeze (PABAK=0.27). Crackles were more common on conventional auscultation, whereas wheeze was more frequent on digital auscultation. Compared with neither crackles nor wheeze, crackles-only on both conventional and digital auscultation was associated with abnormal chest radiographs (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.53, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.36; aOR=2.09, 95% CI 1.19 to 3.68, respectively); any wheeze was inversely associated with C-reactive protein >40 mg/L using conventional auscultation (aOR=0.50, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.92) and with very severe pneumonia using digital auscultation (aOR=0.67, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.97). Crackles-only on digital auscultation was associated with mortality compared with any wheeze (aOR=2.70, 95% CI 1.12 to 6.25). CONCLUSIONS: Conventional auscultation and remotely-classified digital auscultation displayed moderate concordance for presence/absence of wheeze and crackles among cases. Conventional and digital auscultation may provide different classification patterns, but wheeze was associated with decreased clinical severity on both.

Antimicrobial resistance and virulence genes in Salmonella enterica serovars isolated from droppings of layer chicken in two farms in Nigeria.

AIM: This study aimed to investigate the isolation rate, antibiotic resistance and virulence genes of Salmonella enterica serovar from two commercial farms in Nigeria. METHODS AND RESULTS: Salmonella isolation was performed according to the United States Food and Drug Agency (USFDA) method. Serotyping, antimicrobial susceptibility testing, detection of resistance and virulence genes were done using the Kauffman-White Scheme, disc diffusion, minimum inhibitory concentration and real-time polymerase chain reaction techniques. Salmonella serovars were isolated from only farm A at 22/50 (44.0%) while none were isolated from farm B. Salmonella Typhi, 9 (40.9%); Salmonella Typhimurium, 2 (9.1%), Salmonella Enteritidis, 2 (9.1%), Salmonella Pullorum, 1 (4.5%), Salmonella Kentucky, 4 (18.2%) were identified while 4 (18.2%) were untypable. Sixteen isolates (72.7%) showed multiple drug resistance and 17 different resistance profile types with AMP-CHL-TRM-SXT as the most prevalent pattern. Resistance genes (blaTEM, 12/22 (54.5%) and virulence genes (InvA, sopB, mgtC and spi4D, 22/22 (100.0%), ssaQ, 16/22 (72.7%) and spvC, 13/22 (59.1%) were found, while blaSHV, blaCTX-M, floR, tetA, tetB, tetG and LJSGI-1 genes were absent. CONCLUSION: Pathogenic Salmonella were isolated from the chicken droppings in this study. Most of these strains were resistant to antibiotics and possessed characteristics of virulence. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Chicken droppings from this study area contained pathogenic strains of Salmonella and a rare occurrence of Salmonella Typhi. The study revealed that the environment and the food chain could be at risk of contamination of highly virulent and antimicrobial-resistant strains of Salmonella. These could affect the profitability of the poultry industry and food consumption. There is a need for caution in indiscriminate disposal of poultry waste and the use of uncomposted chicken droppings in soil amendment.

A multicentre point prevalence study of antibiotics utilization in hospitalized patients in an urban secondary and a tertiary healthcare facilities in Nigeria: findings and implications.

OBJECTIVES: The understanding of antimicrobial utilization patterns is pertinent to successful implementation of the National Action Plans on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR). There is, however, limited information on antibiotics utilization in Nigeria. This study was undertaken to build on existing information and provide direction for appropriate interventions including Antibiotics Stewardship Programs (ASP). METHOD: A Point Prevalence Study (PPS) was conducted in two public urban health facilities in Lagos, Nigeria using a design adapted from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and Global-PPS surveys. RESULTS: The prevalence of antibiotics use was 80.6% administered mostly parenterally (83.1% of total prescriptions) with concerns with extended surgical antibiotics prophylaxis. The mostly used antibiotics in the secondary hospital were parenteral metronidazole (32.4%), ceftriaxone (27.5%), and amoxicillin + clavulanate (8.2%) while the mostly used in the tertiary hospital were ceftriaxone (25.3%), parenteral metronidazole (19.1%), and amoxicillin + clavulanate (9.3%). There was an appreciable lack of specific functional capacities, policies, and processes to promote appropriate antimicrobial use in both hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: There is high rate of antibiotics utilization in these facilities with lack of institutional frameworks and processes for ensuring appropriate antibiotic use. The study provides the information needed to improve future antimicrobial use in hospitals and reduce AMR.

The Etiology of Childhood Pneumonia in The Gambia: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in young children globally. The changing epidemiology of pneumonia requires up-to-date data to guide both case management and prevention programs. The Gambia study site contributed a high child mortality, high pneumonia incidence, low HIV prevalence, Haemophilus influenzae type b and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines-vaccinated rural West African setting to the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study. METHODS: The PERCH study was a 7-country case-control study of the etiology of hospitalized severe pneumonia in children 1-59 months of age in low and middle-income countries. Culture and nucleic acid detection methods were used to test nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs, blood, induced sputum and, in selected cases, lung or pleural fluid aspirates. Etiology was determined by integrating case and control data from multiple specimens using the PERCH integrated analysis based on Bayesian probabilistic methods. RESULTS: At The Gambia study site, 638 cases of World Health Organization-defined severe and very severe pneumonia (286 of which were chest radiograph [CXR]-positive and HIV-negative) and 654 age-frequency matched controls were enrolled. Viral causes predominated overall (viral 58% vs. bacterial 28%), and of CXR-positive cases respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) accounted for 37%, Streptococcus pneumoniae 13% and parainfluenza was responsible for 9%. Nevertheless, among very severe cases bacterial causes dominated (77% bacterial vs. 11% viral), led by S. pneumoniae (41%); Mycobacterium tuberculosis, not included in "bacterial", accounted for 9%. 93% and 80% of controls ≥1 year of age were, respectively, fully vaccinated for age against Haemophilus influenzae and S. pneumoniae. CONCLUSIONS: Viral causes, notably RSV, predominated in The Gambia overall, but bacterial causes dominated the severest cases. Efforts must continue to prevent disease by optimizing access to existing vaccines, and to develop new vaccines, notably against RSV. A continued emphasis on appropriate case management of severe pneumonia remains important.

Impact of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia in The Gambia: 10 years of population-based surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The Gambia introduced seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in August 2009, followed by PCV13 in May, 2011, using a schedule of three primary doses without a booster dose or catch-up immunisation. We aimed to assess the long-term impact of PCV on disease incidence. METHODS: We did 10 years of population-based surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and WHO defined radiological pneumonia with consolidation in rural Gambia. The surveillance population included all Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System residents aged 2 months or older. Nurses screened all outpatients and inpatients at all health facilities using standardised criteria for referral. Clinicians then applied criteria for patient investigation. We defined IPD as a compatible illness with isolation of Streptococcus pneumoniae from a normally sterile site (cerebrospinal fluid, blood, or pleural fluid). We compared disease incidence between baseline (May 12, 2008-May 11, 2010) and post-vaccine years (2016-2017), in children aged 2 months to 14 years, adjusting for changes in case ascertainment over time. FINDINGS: We identified 22 728 patients for investigation and detected 342 cases of IPD and 2623 cases of radiological pneumonia. Among children aged 2-59 months, IPD incidence declined from 184 cases per 100 000 person-years to 38 cases per 100 000 person-years, an 80% reduction (95% CI 69-87). Non-pneumococcal bacteraemia incidence did not change significantly over time (incidence rate ratio 0·88; 95% CI, 0·64-1·21). We detected zero cases of vaccine-type IPD in the 2-11 month age group in 2016-17. Incidence of radiological pneumonia decreased by 33% (95% CI 24-40), from 10·5 to 7·0 per 1000 person-years in the 2-59 month age group, while pneumonia hospitalisations declined by 27% (95% CI 22-31). In the 5-14 year age group, IPD incidence declined by 69% (95% CI -28 to 91) and radiological pneumonia by 27% (95% CI -5 to 49). INTERPRETATION: Routine introduction of PCV13 substantially reduced the incidence of childhood IPD and pneumonia in rural Gambia, including elimination of vaccine-type IPD in infants. Other low-income countries can expect substantial impact from the introduction of PCV13 using a schedule of three primary doses. FUNDING: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; UK Medical Research Council; Pfizer Ltd.

The Etiology of Pneumonia From Analysis of Lung Aspirate and Pleural Fluid Samples: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

BACKGROUND: An improved understanding of childhood pneumonia etiology is required to inform prevention and treatment strategies. Lung aspiration is the gold standard specimen for pneumonia diagnostics. We report findings from analyses of lung and pleural aspirates collected in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study. METHODS: The PERCH study enrolled children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 countries in Africa and Asia. Percutaneous transthoracic lung aspiration (LA) and pleural fluid (PF) aspiration was performed on a sample of pneumonia cases with radiological consolidation and/or PF in 4 countries. Venous blood and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected from all cases. Multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and routine microbiologic culture were applied to clinical specimens. RESULTS: Of 44 LAs performed within 3 days of admission on 622 eligible cases, 13 (30%) had a pathogen identified by either culture (5/44) or by PCR (11/29). A pathogen was identified in 12/14 (86%) PF specimens tested by either culture (9/14) or PCR (9/11). Bacterial pathogens were identified more frequently than viruses. All but 1 of the cases with a virus identified were coinfected with bacterial pathogens. Streptococcus pneumoniae (9/44 [20%]) and Staphylococcus aureus (7/14 [50%]) were the predominant pathogens identified in LA and PF, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial pathogens predominated in this selected subgroup of PERCH participants drawn from those with radiological consolidation or PF, with S. pneumoniae and S. aureus the leading pathogens identified.

The development and implementation of an oxygen treatment solution for health facilities in low and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Oxygen reduces mortality from severe pneumonia and is a vital part of case management, but achieving reliable access to oxygen is challenging in low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We developed and field tested two oxygen supply solutions suitable for the realities of LMIC health facilities. METHODS: A Health Needs Assessment identified a technology gap preventing reliable oxygen supplies in Gambian hospitals. We used simultaneous engineering to develop two solutions: a Mains-Power Storage (Mains-PS) system consisting of an oxygen concentrator and batteries connected to mains power, and a Solar-Power Storage (Solar-PS) system (with batteries charged by photovoltaic panels) and evaluated them in health facilities in The Gambia and Fiji to assess reliability, usability and costs. RESULTS: The Mains-PS system delivered the specified ≥85% (±3%) oxygen concentration in 100% of 1-2 weekly measurements over 12 months, which was available to 100% of hypoxaemic patients, and 100% of users rated ease-of-use as at least 'good' (90% very good or excellent). The Solar-PS system delivered ≥85% ± 3%) oxygen concentration in 100% of 1-2 weekly measurements, was available to 100% of patients needing oxygen, and 100% of users rated ease-of-use at least very good.Costs for the systems (in US dollars) were: PS$9519, Solar-PS standard version $20 718. The of oxygen for a standardised 30-bed health facility using 1.7 million litres of oxygen per year was: for cylinders 3.2 cents (c)/L in The Gambia and 6.8 c/L in Fiji, for the PS system 1.2 c/L in both countries, and for the Solar-PS system 1.5 c/L in both countries. CONCLUSIONS: The oxygen systems developed and tested delivered high-quality, reliable, cost-efficient oxygen in LMIC contexts, and were easy to operate. Reliable oxygen supplies are achievable in LMIC health facilities like those in The Gambia and Fiji.

Molecular characterization of invasive Enterobacteriaceae from pediatric patients in Central and Northwestern Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Bacteremia is a leading cause of mortality in developing countries, however, etiologic evaluation is infrequent and empiric antibiotic use not evidence-based. Here, we evaluated the patterns of ESBL resistance in children enrolled into a surveillance study for community acquired bacteremic syndromes across health facilities in Central and Northwestern Nigeria. METHOD: Blood culture was performed for children aged less than 5 years suspected of having sepsis from Sept 2008-Dec 2016. Blood was incubated using the BACTEC00AE system and Enterobacteriacea identified to the species level using Analytical Profile Index (API20E®). Antibiotic susceptibility profile was determined by the disc diffusion method. Real time PCR was used to characterize genes responsible for ESBL production. RESULT: Of 21,000 children screened from Sept 2008-Dec 2016, 2,625(12.5%) were culture-positive. A total of 413 Enterobacteriaceae available for analysis were screened for ESBL. ESBL production was detected in 160 Enterobacteriaceae, high resistance rates were observed among ESBL-positive isolates for Ceftriaxone (92.3%), Aztreonam (96.8%), Cefpodoxime (96.3%), Cefotaxime (98.8%) and Trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (90%), while 87.5%, 90.7%, and 91.9% of the isolates were susceptible to Imipenem, Amikacin and Meropenem respectively. Frequently detected resistance genes were blaTEM-83.8% (134/160), and, blaCTX-M 83.1% (133/160) followed by blaSHVgenes 66.3% (106/160). Co-existence of blaCTX-M, blaTEM and blaSHV was seen in 94/160 (58.8%), blaCTX-M and blaTEM in 118/160 (73.8%), blaTEM and blaSHV in 97/160 (60.6%) and blaCTX-M and blaSHV in 100/160 (62.5%) of isolates tested. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate a high prevalence of bacteremia from ESBL Enterobacteriaceae in this population of children. These are resistant to commonly used antibiotics and careful choice of antibiotic treatment options is critical. Further studies to evaluate transmission dynamics of resistance genes could help in the reduction of ESBL resistance in these settings.

Digital auscultation in PERCH: Associations with chest radiography and pneumonia mortality in children.

BACKGROUND: Whether digitally recorded lung sounds are associated with radiographic pneumonia or clinical outcomes among children in low-income and middle-income countries is unknown. We sought to address these knowledge gaps. METHODS: We enrolled 1 to 59monthold children hospitalized with pneumonia at eight African and Asian Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health sites in six countries, recorded digital stethoscope lung sounds, obtained chest radiographs, and collected clinical outcomes. Recordings were processed and classified into binary categories positive or negative for adventitial lung sounds. Listening and reading panels classified recordings and radiographs. Recording classification associations with chest radiographs with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (radiographic pneumonia) or mortality were evaluated. We also examined case fatality among risk strata. RESULTS: Among children without WHO danger signs, wheezing (without crackles) had a lower adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for radiographic pneumonia (0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15, 0.82), compared to children with normal recordings. Neither crackle only (no wheeze) (aOR: 2.13, 95% CI: 0.91, 4.96) or any wheeze (with or without crackle) (aOR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.34, 1.15) were associated with radiographic pneumonia. Among children with WHO danger signs no lung recording classification was independently associated with radiographic pneumonia, although trends toward greater odds of radiographic pneumonia were observed among children classified with crackle only (no wheeze) or any wheeze (with or without crackle). Among children without WHO danger signs, those with recorded wheezing had a lower case fatality than those without wheezing (3.8% vs. 9.1%, p = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Among lower risk children without WHO danger signs digitally recorded wheezing is associated with a lower odds for radiographic pneumonia and with lower mortality. Although further research is needed, these data indicate that with further development digital auscultation may eventually contribute to child pneumonia care.

The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1-59 months. METHODS: Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011-2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic. RESULTS: Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age <1 year, female sex, ≥3 days of illness prior to presentation to hospital, low weight for height, unresponsiveness, deep breathing, hypoxemia, grunting, and the absence of cough. The model discriminated well between those who died and those who survived (C statistic = 0.84), but the predictive capacity of the PERCH 5-stratum score derived from the coefficients was moderate (C statistic = 0.76). The performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children score was similar (C statistic = 0.76). The number of World Health Organization (WHO) danger signs demonstrated the highest discrimination (C statistic = 0.82; 1.5% died if no danger signs, 10% if 1 danger sign, and 33% if ≥2 danger signs). CONCLUSIONS: The PERCH severity score could be used to interpret geographic variations in pneumonia mortality and etiology. The number of WHO danger signs on presentation to hospital could be the most useful of the currently available tools to aid clinical management of pneumonia.

Meningococcus serogroup C clonal complex ST-10217 outbreak in Zamfara State, Northern Nigeria.

After the successful roll out of MenAfriVac, Nigeria has experienced sequential meningitis outbreaks attributed to meningococcus serogroup C (NmC). Zamfara State in North-western Nigeria recently was at the epicentre of the largest NmC outbreak in the 21st Century with 7,140 suspected meningitis cases and 553 deaths reported between December 2016 and May 2017. The overall attack rate was 155 per 100,000 population and children 5-14 years accounted for 47% (3,369/7,140) of suspected cases. The case fatality rate (CFR) among children 5-9 years was 10%, double that reported among adults ≥ 30 years (5%). NmC and pneumococcus accounted for 94% (172/184) and 5% (9/184) of the laboratory-confirmed cases, respectively. The sequenced NmC belonged to the ST-10217 clonal complex (CC). All serotyped pneumococci were PCV10 serotypes. The emergence of NmC ST-10217 CC outbreaks threatens the public health gains made by MenAfriVac, which calls for an urgent strategic action against meningitis outbreaks.

Zinc as an adjunct therapy in the management of severe pneumonia among Gambian children: randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of zinc as an adjunct therapy for severe pneumonia is not established. We assessed the benefit of adjunct zinc therapy for severe pneumonia in children and determined whether the study children were zinc deficient. METHODS: This was a randomized, parallel group, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with an allocation ratio of 1:1 conducted in children with severe pneumonia to evaluate the efficacy of daily zinc as an adjunct treatment in preventing 'treatment failure' (presence of any sign of severe pneumonia) on day-5 and day-10 and in reducing the time to resolution of signs of severe pneumonia. Six hundred and four children 2-59 months of age presenting with severe pneumonia at six urban and rural health care facilities in The Gambia were individually randomised to receive placebo (n = 301) or zinc (n = 303) for seven days. To determine if the study children were zinc deficient, supplementation was continued in a randomly selected subgroup of 121 children from each arm for six months post-enrolment, and height-gain, nutritional status, plasma zinc concentrations, and immune competence were compared. RESULTS: Percentage of treatment failure were similar in placebo and zinc arms both on day 5 (14.0% vs 14.1%) and day 10 (5.2% vs 5.9%). The time to recovery from lower chest wall indrawing and sternal retraction was longer in the placebo compared to zinc arm (24.4 vs 23.0 hours; P = 0.011 and 18.7 vs 11.0 hours; P = 0.006 respectively). The time to resolution for all respiratory symptoms of severity was not significantly different between placebo and zinc arms (42.3 vs 30.9 hours respectively; P = 0.242). In the six months follow-up sub-group, there was no significant difference in height gain, height-for-age and weight-for-height Z-scores, mid upper arm circumference, plasma zinc concentrations, and anergy at six months post-enrolment. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, zinc given as an adjunct treatment for severe pneumonia showed no benefit in treatment failure rates, or clinically important benefit in time to recovery from respiratory symptoms and showed marginal benefit in rapidity of resolution of some signs of severity. This finding does not support routine use of zinc as an adjunct treatment in severe pneumonia in generally zinc replete children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN33548493.

Listening panel agreement and characteristics of lung sounds digitally recorded from children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: Paediatric lung sound recordings can be systematically assessed, but methodological feasibility and validity is unknown, especially from developing countries. We examined the performance of acoustically interpreting recorded paediatric lung sounds and compared sound characteristics between cases and controls. METHODS: Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health staff in six African and Asian sites recorded lung sounds with a digital stethoscope in cases and controls. Cases aged 1-59 months had WHO severe or very severe pneumonia; age-matched community controls did not. A listening panel assigned examination results of normal, crackle, wheeze, crackle and wheeze or uninterpretable, with adjudication of discordant interpretations. Classifications were recategorised into any crackle, any wheeze or abnormal (any crackle or wheeze) and primary listener agreement (first two listeners) was analysed among interpretable examinations using the prevalence-adjusted, bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK). We examined predictors of disagreement with logistic regression and compared case and control lung sounds with descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Primary listeners considered 89.5% of 792 case and 92.4% of 301 control recordings interpretable. Among interpretable recordings, listeners agreed on the presence or absence of any abnormality in 74.9% (PABAK 0.50) of cases and 69.8% (PABAK 0.40) of controls, presence/absence of crackles in 70.6% (PABAK 0.41) of cases and 82.4% (PABAK 0.65) of controls and presence/absence of wheeze in 72.6% (PABAK 0.45) of cases and 73.8% (PABAK 0.48) of controls. Controls, tachypnoea, >3 uninterpretable chest positions, crying, upper airway noises and study site predicted listener disagreement. Among all interpretable examinations, 38.0% of cases and 84.9% of controls were normal (p<0.0001); wheezing was the most common sound (49.9%) in cases. CONCLUSIONS: Listening panel and case-control data suggests our methodology is feasible, likely valid and that small airway inflammation is common in WHO pneumonia. Digital auscultation may be an important future pneumonia diagnostic in developing countries.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. METHODS: We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. FINDINGS: We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. INTERPRETATION: Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on pneumonia in The Gambia: population-based surveillance and case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are used in many low-income countries but their impact on the incidence of pneumonia is unclear. The Gambia introduced PCV7 in August, 2009, and PCV13 in May, 2011. We aimed to measure the impact of the introduction of these vaccines on pneumonia incidence. METHODS: We did population-based surveillance and case-control studies. The primary endpoint was WHO-defined radiological pneumonia with pulmonary consolidation. Population-based surveillance was for suspected pneumonia in children aged 2-59 months (minimum age 3 months in the case-control study) between May 12, 2008, and Dec 31, 2015. Surveillance for the impact study was limited to the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS), whereas surveillance for the case-control study included both the BHDSS and Fuladu West Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Nurses screened all outpatients and inpatients at all health facilities in the surveillance area using standardised criteria for referral to clinicians in Basse and Bansang. These clinicians recorded clinical findings and applied standardised criteria to identify patients with suspected pneumonia. We compared the incidence of pneumonia during the baseline period (May 12, 2008, to May 11, 2010) and the PCV13 period (Jan 1, 2014, to Dec 31, 2015). We also investigated the effectiveness of PCV13 using case-control methods between Sept 12, 2011, and Sept 31, 2014. Controls were aged 90 days or older, and were eligible to have received at least one dose of PCV13; cases had the same eligibility criteria with the addition of having WHO-defined radiological pneumonia. FINDINGS: We investigated 18 833 children with clinical pneumonia and identified 2156 cases of radiological pneumonia. Among children aged 2-11 months, the incidence of radiological pneumonia fell from 21·0 cases per 1000 person-years in the baseline period to 16·2 cases per 1000 person-years (23% decline, 95% CI 7-36) in 2014-15. In the 12-23 month age group, radiological pneumonia decreased from 15·3 to 10·9 cases per 1000 person-years (29% decline, 12-42). In children aged 2-4 years, incidence fell from 5·2 to 4·1 cases per 1000 person-years (22% decline, 1-39). Incidence of all clinical pneumonia increased by 4% (-1 to 8), but hospitalised cases declined by 8% (3-13). Pneumococcal pneumonia declined from 2·9 to 1·2 cases per 1000 person-years (58% decline, 22-77) in children aged 2-11 months and from 2·6 to 0·7 cases per 1000 person-years (75% decline, 47-88) in children aged 12-23 months. Hypoxic pneumonia fell from 13·1 to 5·7 cases per 1000 person-years (57% decline, 42-67) in children aged 2-11 months and from 6·8 to 1·9 cases per 1000 person-years (72% decline, 58-82) in children aged 12-23 months. In the case-control study, the best estimate of the effectiveness of three doses of PCV13 against radiological pneumonia was an adjusted odds ratio of 0·57 (0·30-1·08) in children aged 3-11 months and vaccine effectiveness increased with greater numbers of doses (p=0·026). The analysis in children aged 12 months and older was underpowered because there were few unvaccinated cases and controls. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of PCV in The Gambia was associated with a moderate impact on the incidence of radiological pneumonia, a small reduction in cases of hospitalised pneumonia, and substantial reductions of pneumococcal and hypoxic pneumonia in young children. Low-income countries that introduce PCV13 with reasonable coverage can expect modest reductions in hospitalised cases of pneumonia and a marked impact on the incidence of severe childhood pneumonia. FUNDING: GAVI's Pneumococcal vaccines Accelerated Development and Introduction Plan, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council.